Assessing the Validity of Year-Ahead Predictions 2019

Assessing the validity of predictions made in the past is far harder—and less common—than simply making predictions. Below, we attempt to do just that for the 10 events and trends we forecasted last year in Year-Ahead Predictions 2019. Some unfolded more or less as we predicted while others were only partially borne out by events.

Prediction #1
The US–China trade war will intensify. (100%)

Although the United States and China announced a limited trade deal in October, tit-for-tat tariffs imposed throughout the year remain in place, and the threat of additional tariff escalations persists. US importers ramped up sourcing from Southeast Asian countries, while China turned to Latin America to diversify its trade relationships.

Prediction #2
Bitcoin will lead the consolidation and maturation of the cryptocurrency market. (50%)

Bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market capitalization exceeded 70 percent in September. However, 13 of the world’s biggest banks are preparing to launch their own digital versions of major currencies (subscription required). And regulators remained critical of cryptocurrencies (subscription required) in 2019, claiming that they facilitate illegal activity and carry systemic risks.

Prediction #3
The global trash crisis will spur innovations in waste management. (100%)

Local and national governments are innovating waste management practices. Australia, for example, has introduced Reconophalt roads, detritus processing facilities, and recycling microfactories. In addition, 25 of the world’s largest consumer brands have started test-selling their products in reusable containers. And scientists are also innovating; recent discoveries include methods to transform certain plastics into jet fuel.

Prediction #4
The global shipping industry will crash into new sulfur regulations. (100%)

The shipping industry is struggling to meet the impending 1 January 2020 sulfur regulation. In August, prices for compliant low-sulfur fuel were about 30 percent higher than those for high-sulfur fuel. And as demand for lower-sulfur fuels rose, a corresponding decrease in the supply of jet fuel and diesel increased prices.

Prediction #5
The Xi–Putin relationship will be the world’s most consequential bromance. (100%)

Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are becoming ever closer as the US–China trade war intensifies. This tight relationship is exemplified by their orchestration of a major deal between Huawei and MTS to build 5G networks in Russia (subscription required) and the countries’ pledge to double bilateral trade volume to $200 billion by 2024.

Prediction #6
The global anxiety epidemic will lead to a proliferation of new products. (75%)

The self-care consumer market expanded in 2019, with CBD products in particular experiencing a boom. It is estimated that the CBD market grew 706 percent in 2019 in the United States alone. Younger generations of consumers drove this trend, though, as the elderly did not embrace CBD as enthusiastically as expected.

Prediction #7
A sand shortage will grind the gears of the global construction industry. (75%)

The UN drew attention to the global sand shortage in 2019. Construction costs in India and South Africa rose as the sand supply tightened, and the Indian state of
Andhra Pradesh introduced restrictive new sand regulations. However, Greenland discovered large sand reserves, which could ease global supply constraints.

Prediction #8
The looming emerging markets credit crisis will grow in both scale and scope. (75%)

A strong US dollar has raised repayment costs of foreign currency-denominated loans. Argentina is facing renewed economic turmoil, Pakistan and Ecuador (subscription required) received IMF funds, and the IMF granted Sri Lanka an extension (subscription required) for its existing program. Furthermore, China remained an active player in development aid in 2019, despite still being owed funds.

Prediction #9
Africa will be more connected than ever. (100%)

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) came into effect in May. Importantly, both South Africa and Nigeria ratified it. Countries across the continent are also investing in domestic airlines with Ethiopian Airways offering a support role. Railway projects in East and West Africa progressed as well.

Prediction #10
Real-life “Iron Man” will materialize in the form of exoskeletons. (100%)

In France, a man used an exoskeleton to walk in 2019. Hyundai joined other auto manufacturers in using exoskeletons in its factories, and the first US facility to offer exoskeleton therapy opened. In addition, US-based Ekso Bionics announced a joint venture with ZYVC to expand into Asia.