There is a wide range of strategic foresight techniques from which to choose, varying in methodological rigor, who conducts the analysis, and the level of time and resource commitments. The most important distinction among these methodologies, though, is their unit of analysis—whether they assess trends, events, contingencies, environments, or some combination of these four aspects of the future.

Trends are directional patterns of change. In traditional trends analysis, an organization assesses both qualitative and quantitative data over time to ascertain the patterns of change in its external operating environment. Here we focus on a more cutting-edge identification and analysis of new and emerging trends, known as horizon scanning.

Strategic foresight methodologies that focus on the likely outcome of key events in the future have the most in common with forecasting. However, both of the methodologies we explore here—the Delphi method and crowdsourcing—recognize the inherent uncertainty in future events, which is why they do not rely on data but rather seek to aggregate the collective wisdom of multiple individuals to arrive at a prediction. Both of these methodologies can also be used to assess the direction of trends.

Contingencies are potential future events, such as a strategic shock, the culmination of an ongoing trend, or another discrete event. Contingency planning is the process by which organizations identify and plan for such potential shocks. There are many different contingency planning methodologies from which organizations can choose. Below we focus on war-gaming, as well as a nascent technology-enabled methodology known as immersive reality.

Finally, environments are the future operating conditions that an organization will face. The most widely used methodology for assessing possible future environments is scenario planning. However, organizations can also use some of the methodologies mentioned earlier (such as the Delphi method, simulation and war-gaming, and immersive reality) to assess likely future operating environments.

What all of these methodologies have in common is their systematic structuring of the inherent uncertainty about the future external environment in a useful way. Each strategic foresight methodology bounds this uncertainty differently though, so each is better suited to answering certain types of future-oriented questions and applications. For example, war games and scenario planning can be extremely powerful in challenging executives’ assumptions about the future, while scenario planning is also well-suited to prioritizing long-term investments. And internal crowdsourcing can offer unique insights while also establishing broader institutional buy-in by enabling wider segments of an organization to participate in the strategic planning process.

The greatest value for strategic planners often emerges from the coordinated use of several methodologies in tandem. They can be mutually reinforcing by offering distinct analytical lenses on the same strategic question. For example, horizon scanning can identify emergent drivers of change that can help define scenarios. And scenario workshops often reveal specific potential events for which designing a war-gaming exercise is vitally important. These methods can also be applied independently to the same question as a means of cross-testing key findings. In addition, new technologies and improving data analytics are leading to innovation in how many of these strategic foresight methodologies are structured and implemented. For instance, coupling qualitative scenario analysis with quantitative econometric forecasting can yield more sophisticated and realistic scenario sets, and digital technologies enable methodologies such as the Delphi method to be implemented more quickly and efficiently than in the past.

Below is an exploration of six key strategic foresight methodologies that can help business and government leaders to decipher the future global external operating environment and make better-informed strategic decisions for their organizations (see figure 3).